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SPUR tells Planning Commission San Francisco must align land‑use and transit planning to keep jobs on transit
Summary
SPUR presenters told the Planning Commission that regional job‑growth projections and limited downtown zoning and transit capacity mean San Francisco should plan land use and transit in parallel to keep jobs near transit and reduce car commutes.
SPUR policy experts told the San Francisco Planning Commission that the Bay Area’s projected population and job growth will outstrip the city’s existing downtown capacity unless land‑use and transit planning are coordinated.
At a presentation to the commission, SPUR Regional Policy Director Egon Turpin and colleagues summarized findings from a March paper arguing that placing more jobs near transit is essential to reduce driving and meet state climate goals. They cited ABAG employment forecasts and said current downtown zoning leaves an estimated fixed capacity of roughly 4 million to 13 million square feet of office space under current rules — enough for only about a decade of absorption at recent rates.
George Williams and Tony Barzoni, members of SPUR’s project team, highlighted transit constraints: BART, the Bay Bridge and the Transbay bus terminal together create bottlenecks for peak‑period commuter flows from the East Bay and other subregions. Barzoni noted that BART and ferry capacity can be expanded only so far and that station throughput (for example at Embarcadero and Montgomery stations) is already a limiting factor.
Commissioners pressed SPUR on vacancy rates and what types of employers might occupy new downtown office space. SPUR acknowledged current vacancy is high and said the market has historically rebounded quickly; the presenters emphasized flexibility in building form — from new low‑rise floorplates to tall office buildings — so long as employment is located near transit.
Why it matters: SPUR’s central recommendation to the commission was procedural and strategic: future zoning or downtown plan revisions should be undertaken together with transit agencies so capacity improvements and land‑use changes are timed and phased together. If not, the presenters warned, the region will face rising commute times, higher energy use and increased greenhouse‑gas emissions.
The commission took no immediate regulatory action but asked staff to track the presentation’s conclusions and to consider follow‑up informational hearings on grocery‑store access, Fourth Street and the transit‑land‑use relationship described by SPUR.
SPUR’s presentation and the commission’s questions concluded with a broadly supportive tone from several commissioners, who said the topic warrants deeper, regional study and continued outreach.
