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Officials warn of roughly $800 million shortfall; March update trims projections by about $10 million
Summary
City budget staff told the Budget and Appropriation Committee on May 1 that, under a status‑quo projection, San Francisco faces an estimated $800 million deficit in the next two years; the March update reduced prior projections by about $10 million but highlighted major fiscal risks including labor negotiations, possible state cuts to ERAF, and retirement return shortfalls.
San Francisco budget officials told the County’s Budget and Appropriation Committee on May 1 that, if the city makes no new policy changes, it faces an estimated $800 million shortfall over the next two years, though the March update to the five‑year financial plan reduced prior projections by about $10 million.
Anna Dunion of the Mayor’s Budget Office said the March update is a modest revision to the December report and “we're looking at a change of about $10,000,000 from our prior projections.” She framed the estimate as a status‑quo projection—an accounting of the gap that would exist without new policy actions.
The report layers a mix of modest revenue improvements with higher cost assumptions. Carol Lou of the Controller’s Office said property tax forecasts were lowered because of increased assessment appeals that reduce assessed values and the amount of excess ERAF available to the city. Business tax cash receipts were higher in the current year but were largely offset by known refund…
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