SFMTA outlines service restoration costs and warns of long‑term structural deficit

SFMTA Director Jeffrey Tumlin told the Budget & Appropriations Committee on May 5 that the agency has reorganized service four times during the pandemic, prioritizing routes that serve essential workers and historically underserved neighborhoods. "The most powerful statement of any organization's values is its budget," Tumlin said as he framed SFMTA’s decisions.

Tumlin and staff described a multi‑year recovery, steady ridership gains in spring 2021, and persistent revenue losses from fares, parking and the general fund. CFO Jonathan Roux provided a dollar estimate for service restoration: the first 15% of service will cost about $74,000,000 and the second 15% about $85,000,000, using FTA cost‑per‑service‑hour methodology.

The presenters warned that the agency’s 2‑year fixed budget means many short‑term revenue shortfalls are covered by one‑time federal relief and reserves; without new sustainable revenue sources the agency would face a structural deficit again by FY24. SFMTA described tactics to close gaps — hiring and training to restore operators, shifting some flexible capital to operations, leveraging revenue bonds for one‑time capital, and pursuing federal capital grants — while stressing equity in service decisions.

Supervisors asked about late‑night service for hospitality workers, the effect of shifting capital to operations on subway renewal and the scale of parking‑meter replacement (SFMTA staff said the meter project is about $22–30 million and financed by parking revenue bonds). The committee filed the update 5–0.