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Controller's economist: 2020 outmigration and a plunge in rents reshape San Francisco recovery
Summary
Ted Egan of the Controller's Office told the Budget and Appropriations Committee that USPS change‑of‑address and rent‑tracker data show substantial outmigration and a 25–30% drop in apartment rents in San Francisco by January 2021; office vacancy surged and uneven sector recovery poses risks to downtown jobs and small businesses.
Ted Egan of the Controller's Office told the Budget and Appropriations Committee on Feb. 17 that San Francisco's pandemic economy shows a sharp divergence between sectors and neighborhoods, with migration and rental markets likely to shape the city's near‑term recovery.
Egan said unemployment in the two‑county metro area (San Francisco and San Mateo) spiked to over 12% in April 2020, and by December had partly recovered; roughly 80,000 jobs remained lost from the pre‑pandemic peak. He attributed recovery differences to sectoral patterns: professional, scientific and technical services had nearly recovered by late 2020, while restaurant employment remained roughly 40% below pre‑COVID levels.
On migration, Egan summarized United States…
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