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Controller: city general fund projection improves by $94M; transfer tax volatility remains a risk
Summary
The controller presented a nine‑month projection showing a $94 million improvement in the general fund ending balance, driven largely by Department of Public Health revenues and a one‑time $39M ACA payment; transfer tax remains volatile and will affect future forecasts.
Controller Ben Rosenfield told the committee the city’s most recent nine‑month projection shows the general fund ending balance improved by roughly $94 million since the six‑month report, significantly narrowing the projected shortfall for the coming budget cycle.
The improvement is primarily tied to Department of Public Health revenue performance, including a one‑time federal payment related to Affordable Care Act population flows (approximately $39 million), higher hospital census and better payer mix, the controller said. Property tax and business tax projections are modestly ahead of the prior forecast, while transfer tax — the city’s most volatile revenue — remains weaker than last year’s extraordinary peak and is a key unknown moving into the budget.
Rosenfield also noted an expected police workers’ compensation shortfall requiring a roughly $5 million reappropriation or offset and described how using increased current‑year balances could reduce the previously projected budget gap going into the next fiscal cycle.
Why it matters: the revenue outlook informs the mayor’s June 1 budget and the board’s deliberations; large one‑time receipts can improve current balances but do not eliminate structural budget pressures for ongoing operations.
Next steps: the controller’s office will publish an updated revenue letter to accompany the mayor’s budget proposal and provide additional detail on assumptions used for FY projections.
