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Recorded HAZUS presentation shown during meeting outlines severe Bay Area earthquake scenarios and losses

September 21, 2006 | San Francisco County, California


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Recorded HAZUS presentation shown during meeting outlines severe Bay Area earthquake scenarios and losses
During the Rules Committee meeting a recorded presentation was played describing two earthquake scenarios: a reanalysis of the 1906 event (based on USGS information) and a modeled magnitude 7.9 San Andreas scenario using HAZUS (a FEMA/NIBS loss-estimation tool). The presenter emphasized modeling ground motion, duration and frequency to identify which buildings and infrastructure would be most damaged.

Key points the presenter gave (as stated in the recording): "This study produced a large number of results. In particular, if we look at the number of damaged commercial buildings, we see it's 10,000" and estimates for displaced households were described as "close to a quarter of a million displaced households." Casualty estimates in the recording ranged from about 1,800 fatalities at nighttime to as many as 3,400 during daytime scenarios. The presenter also cited estimated direct economic losses by county and a total regional loss "around 120 or so billion dollars" for the 19-county region, with specific county figures read aloud for Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara.

The presenter described vulnerable building types (non-ductile concrete, soft‑story residential), recalled historical impacts (Marina District fires in 1989), and recommended a three-part agenda for the region: develop a culture of preparedness, invest strategically in mitigation and risk reduction, and ensure adequate recovery resources.

Context: The recording referenced USGS data and the HAZUS methodology developed for FEMA by the National Institute of Building Sciences. The transcript does not identify the recording's presenter by name, and it is not clear from the public transcript how the recorded presentation was scheduled on the committee agenda.

What happens next: The presenter recommended coordination among governments, businesses and neighborhood organizations and suggested specific investment and preparedness priorities; the committee's public record in the provided transcript does not show a committee discussion or decision arising from the recording.

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