District enrollment falls to 4,290; trustees hear projections showing further declines over next decade

Northport‑East Northport district officials reported an Oct. 1 enrollment of 4,290 students at the Oct. 23 board meeting and discussed demographic trends and projections through the 2032–33 school year.

Administrators said the October projection from the district demographer estimated 4,308 students for the year; the district’s actual enrollment of 4,290 was 18 students fewer than the demographer’s projection. Presenters explained that cohort‑survival methods that push current enrollment forward produce a projection of about 4,001 students by 2032–33 — roughly 44 students higher than the demographer’s long‑range forecast.

The report included a historical comparison: the district counted 6,056 students in 2012–13, a decline of 1,766 students (about 29.2%) from that year to today. Administrators and trustees identified grade‑level distribution changes in the projections: modest projected gains in K–4, declines in grades 5–8, and larger declines at 9–12 that will present planning challenges for high‑school programming.

Trustees asked about the sources and vintage of the demographic data. Presenters said the most recent demographer report used BEDS (Basic Education Data System) data from 2022–23 and was produced by Western Suffolk BOCES; trustees asked the administration to post prior demographer studies for comparison and to continue annual fall reports that add class‑size and staff FTE information.

Administration recommended continued monitoring and the possibility of commissioning a new demographic study if future year‑over‑year trends diverge significantly from projections.