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Utah House hears brighter revenue forecast; lawmakers weigh use of surplus
Summary
Representative Valentine told the House the state’s revenue forecast shows a one-time increase of about $25.1 million and an ongoing FY1995 boost of roughly $32 million, driven largely by sales and construction activity; members asked how durable the gains are for appropriations planning.
Representative Valentine told the House that new revenue projections show larger-than-expected receipts for fiscal 1994 and 1995, including a one-time $25,100,000 increase and an ongoing FY1995 increase of about $31,975,000.
"These are yet indeed the best of times and the worst of times," Representative Valentine said as he presented the numbers. He pointed to sales and use tax (up about $17.5 million) and strong nonresidential construction (noted as a roughly 40% increase in value through 1994) as the main drivers of the improvement.
Lawmakers pressed the presenter on the durability of the gains. Representative Nelson asked whether in‑migration and outsized down payments from buyers coming from high-cost areas could be inflating housing permits; Representative Valentine said he had gross permit counts and referred members to the fiscal analyst and the Tax Commission for demographic breakdowns.
Members stressed the need to be cautious about treating the forecast as permanent revenue. "There are many who have been around a long time who argue that when you have these stellar performances, you're at the top of the roller coaster awaiting the nice big plunge," Representative Valentine said in response to questions about risk.
The fiscal analyst’s cash‑flow sheets circulated to members show the one‑time increase in addition to about $53 million already on the table; the presenter described the net change as roughly a 1% improvement above earlier estimates. Representatives indicated they will consider how the numbers affect the appropriations process and whether to hold to earlier analyst recommendations.
Next steps: members asked staff to provide demographic and tax‑receipt breakdowns and signaled a series of follow‑up questions for the revenue committees and fiscal office.
