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Legislative fiscal analyst reports small net revenue shifts, advises no change to estimates
Summary
The legislative fiscal analyst told the Utah Senate that revised February 1998 revenue estimates show modest net shifts — a $500,000 reduction in the general fund for 1998 and a $1.2 million increase in the Uniform School Fund — and recommended no change to the revenue estimates in current use.
Legislative Fiscal Analyst Leo told the Utah State Senate on Feb. 17 that updated revenue estimates released that morning show only modest net changes and that committees should not alter the revenue figures they are currently using.
"I have good news and bad news for you," Leo said as he opened the fiscal briefing. He reported a net $500,000 decrease in the general fund for fiscal 1998, driven by declines in oil-and-gas severance taxes and slower federal mineral-lease receipts. At the same time the analyst reported a $1.2 million increase in receipts for the Uniform School Fund, leaving a net between the two funds of roughly $700,000 in the analyst's comparison between December and the new estimates.
Leo highlighted a larger reduction in the transportation fund — approximately $5.5 million — attributing most of that to lower special-fuel tax receipts and a decline in motor-fuel tax tied to stockpiling behavior before a prior tax increase. He also said federal mineral-lease revenues were running roughly $1.9 million below earlier expectations.
For fiscal 1999, Leo reported a projected $5.0 million increase in sales-and-use tax revenue and a $3.5 million drop in oil-and-gas severance receipts; on net, the analyst showed a modest increase but recommended retaining current estimates.
Senators pressed for context and long-range implications. Several members urged caution about treating short-term fluctuations as permanent windfalls; Senator Steele and others argued that education appropriations and other obligations should weigh heavily in any decision to alter revenue policy. Leo recommended no adjustment in current revenue estimates, noting that the changes did not warrant an official downward or upward revision at that time.
The Committee of the Whole concluded after the analyst's presentation and the Senate returned to regular session.
