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UAMS warns Arkansas could face sharp COVID-19 inpatient surge; regional plans aim to add beds and ventilators

PUBLIC HEALTH, WELFARE AND LABOR COMMITTEE - SENATE · June 22, 2020
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Summary

University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences leaders told the Senate Public Health, Welfare and Labor Committee UAMS'modeling projects 150,000'10,000 active cases by Sept. 30 and a possible 30'50x rise in inpatients, prompting regional surge plans and new equipment orders to expand capacity.

Chancellor Cam Patterson, CEO of UAMS Health, told the Senate Public Health, Welfare and Labor Committee that UAMS'modeling using Arkansas data projects a mean estimate of about 150,000 active COVID-19 cases (with a high estimate near 250,000) around a Sept. 30 peak. "The UAMS model is predicting a 30 to 55 fold increase in the number of cases in the state of Arkansas with a projected peak around September 30," Patterson said.

Patterson emphasized that national models and state-specific models initially agreed about not seeing an immediate New York'style surge but…

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