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UAMS warns Arkansas could face sharp COVID-19 inpatient surge; regional plans aim to add beds and ventilators
Summary
University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences leaders told the Senate Public Health, Welfare and Labor Committee UAMS'modeling projects 150,000'10,000 active cases by Sept. 30 and a possible 30'50x rise in inpatients, prompting regional surge plans and new equipment orders to expand capacity.
Chancellor Cam Patterson, CEO of UAMS Health, told the Senate Public Health, Welfare and Labor Committee that UAMS'modeling using Arkansas data projects a mean estimate of about 150,000 active COVID-19 cases (with a high estimate near 250,000) around a Sept. 30 peak. "The UAMS model is predicting a 30 to 55 fold increase in the number of cases in the state of Arkansas with a projected peak around September 30," Patterson said.
Patterson emphasized that national models and state-specific models initially agreed about not seeing an immediate New York'style surge but diverged in magnitude. He said the Seattle model was revised over time and now points in a similar direction, but the magnitude difference remains important for planning.
To prepare, Dr. Stefan Mehta, CEO of UAMS Medical Center, described a coordinated Central Arkansas hospital coalition that has planned surge capacity. "The 6 medical centers ... committed to being able to increase our capacity of critical care beds in Little Rock by 750 above what we currently have," Mehta said, adding that the coalition is working with the Arkansas Department of Health to distribute patients and resources based on regional availability.
Officials warned that beds are only one piece of surge capacity. Patterson and Mehta stressed personnel and PPE would likely be the limiting factors. Patterson noted that when non-time-sensitive procedures were halted earlier in the pandemic, UAMS faced major revenue losses and that staffing (nurses, respiratory therapists) and protective equipment are the constraints most likely to limit surge operations.
Members asked for precision on the arithmetic behind the projections. Representative Peyton noted that 30 times an estimated 200 current inpatients would be 6,000 patients, not 700; Patterson clarified that an estimate of roughly 700 additional inpatient beds applied to Central Arkansas as an example and not to the entire state. Patterson said the state-level surge requirements would be larger and depend on how cases spatially concentrate.
What's next: UAMS said the modeling is updated weekly and is meant to inform planning and policy. Officials recommended continued attention to testing, contact tracing and interventions such as masking that could alter projected trajectories.
