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Superintendent: RSU 40 enrollment down about 1% per year; requests birth-rate and homeschool data
Summary
Superintendent Danny reported preliminary enrollment data showing a five‑year decline averaging about 1% per year and said he will bring additional birth‑rate and homeschool figures to the next meeting to help explain the trend.
Superintendent Danny told the RSU 40/MSAD 40 school board that preliminary fall enrollment data show an overall decline over the past five years and that, if the current trend holds, the district could lose roughly 1% of its student population annually over the coming decade.
"Overall, our total enrollment is has decreased over the past 5 years," Danny said, adding that the pattern appears to be about "1% per year each year." He told the board that the official October 1 counts used for state funding are still forthcoming and that the figures presented were preliminary.
Danny said he will return to the board with additional context at a future meeting, including birth‑rate data and information on homeschool enrollments that he has begun collecting from the Maine Department of Education. He said that data could help explain whether the district’s trend reflects statewide patterns or local shifts in family choices.
Board members pressed for more granular information. One member asked for multi‑year data showing which elementary schools students residing in specific attendance areas are actually attending — for example, whether children who live in Friendship Village are enrolled in Prescott, Union, Miller, Warren or other nearby schools. Danny said he can provide intra‑district cross‑attendance data but cannot produce data on families who choose private schools because those students are not enrolled in district records.
The superintendent placed the district’s trend in broader context: national projections show a roughly 4% decline in public‑school enrollment over the decade, while Maine’s projection is just over 6%. Danny said RSU 40’s decline ‘‘comes in at about 1% per year,’’ a smaller rate than the state projection but consistent with a long‑term downward trajectory.
Next steps: Danny said he will compile the requested cross‑attendance figures and the additional birth‑rate and homeschool data and present them to the board at a future meeting so members can assess local drivers of the enrollment change.
