Clear Lake consultant says current funding can raise pavement score to 60 in 10 years; shortfall remains

A pavement-management consultant told the Clear Lake City Council on May 18 that the cityhas a pavement condition index (PCI) of 51 and an estimated network replacement value of $52,700,000, and that modelled scenarios using the cityplanned funding would raise the PCI to about 60 over the next 10 years.

Deborah, a presenter from NCE who led the update, said the consultant updated the street inventory, conducted condition surveys in 2022, and ran a 10-year budget analysis using the decision-support tool "street server." She said the 10-year maintenance need for Clear Lakewas calculated at $25,800,000, while the funding the city provided for the analysis totaled $22,000,000, leaving an estimated 10-year gap of roughly $3,800,000.

Why it matters: PCI is a standard measure (0to100) used to identify when preventive treatments are more cost-effective than expensive rehabilitation. The consultant said proactive treatment preserves pavement at lower cost and that deferred maintenance becomes more expensive over time.

Deborah emphasized that the city's PCI improved strongly between the last published update and the current inventory in part because Measure B funds and a program of paving previously gravel roads were recorded in the network, which raised the measured PCI. She said treatment unit costs statewide have risen more than 30% since 2018 and that the analysis used a 4% annual inflation assumption across 10 years.

Council member Kramer asked when the field surveys were done; Deborah said the surveys were performed in June or July 2022 and that the PCI figures shown include work done in 2022. "So the PCI I have shown over the 10 years in 2023 includes the work that's been done in 2022," she said.

Public Works staff (Eddie) answered questions about near-term construction scheduling and estimated the city could pave roughly 15 to 20 miles next year with planned projects and design work underway for additional segments (areas noted included the Avenues, Old Highway 53 corridor near Pomo School, Clear Lake Park and Ballpark areas). The consultant's modelling suggested that with the city's currently budgeted projects and schedule, the share of the network in good condition would increase and the percent in the worst condition would decline from about 32.3% toward the low 20s over a decade.

The presentation also outlined treatment strategies by condition (preservation treatments for good PCI, microsurfacing/chip seal for fair condition, overlays for major streets, milling/overlays for poor streets and full-depth reclamation for failed pavement) and showed how deferred maintenance metrics change under different funding scenarios.

Next steps: Council members praised staff for securing Measure B and other revenues and asked staff to continue program oversight and public communication about which streets are scheduled for work. The presentation concluded with staff noting the city will continue to refine scheduled projects and pursue grant and financing opportunities to narrow the remaining funding gap.

The city will post the consultant report and continue to incorporate project schedules into its pavement-management database; no formal council action was required after the presentation.