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State analysis shows modest ELA gains but persistent math declines, wide gaps by subgroup
Summary
MSDE research staff presented cohort and performance-level analyses of MCAP results showing modest gains in some ELA cohorts, larger pandemic-era declines in math proficiency, and persistent achievement gaps for African American, Hispanic, multilingual learners and students with disabilities.
State education researchers presented a detailed cohort analysis of MCAP results, showing mixed signals for English language arts (ELA) and a steeper pattern of decline in mathematics.
Jeff Sanderson, deputy responsible for accountability and assessment, summarized cohort trends that track third-grade cohorts across multiple years. Sanderson said students who were proficient in one year largely remained proficient the next — “If I was a passer in 2023... the likelihood of me maintaining my proficiency status in 2024 was very high. It was at 84.5%.” By contrast, students who were not proficient were unlikely to become proficient in a single year: Sanderson reported that among previously non‑proficient students, only about 15.8% reached proficiency in the following year for ELA, and for math that figure was roughly 5%.
The data show persistent subgroup gaps: Asian and White student groups have higher proficiency rates, while African American and Hispanic groups and key service groups — students with disabilities, multilingual learners and students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — have substantially lower proficiency, particularly in mathematics where overall state proficiency is in the low-to-mid 20 percent range.
Sanderson and the research team provided additional breakdowns: cohort stair-step charts, performance-level movement (level 1–4), and special-interest analyses that compared outcomes by school poverty bucket and CSI identification. The department also supplied supplemental tables showing the top 50 schools with the largest gains and a menu of ad hoc analyses the board requested.
Board members asked for further overlays (for example, linking MIIL implementation-phase ratings to MCAP performance) and for clarification on the interpretation of complex cohorts that straddle the pandemic-era assessment disruptions. MSDE staff committed to follow-up analyses and to providing additional tables on request.
