LISD finance team warns of multi‑million dollar deficits as enrollment declines and property values shift

Lewisville ISD finance leaders told trustees they are tracking a challenging fiscal picture driven by declining enrollment, uncertain federal/funding changes and a surprising preliminary increase in taxable property values (T2) that can reduce state aid and raise recapture payments.

Finance staff said the FY25 budget was adopted on assumptions including an enrollment projection of 48,100 students; snapshots show enrollment at 47,875 in October and 47,124 in January with ongoing declines. Estimated ADA used in budgeting was 44,733 but current projections place year‑end ADA near 44,624 and next year's estimates lower still.

Preliminary T2 values from the comptroller came in higher than projected (about $57.7 billion, roughly a 6% increase), which the district said could reduce its state share and increase recapture, offsetting any revenue gains. Staff outlined compensation scenarios (1–3% midpoint increases, with variants adding a $1,000 one‑time payment) and showed projected deficits ranging from about $11.6M up to $25.3M under different assumptions. The district reported potential savings on non‑payroll and noted some one‑time payments included in FY25 payroll.

Trustees and staff discussed sales, hold‑harmless provisions, and possible paths including targeted program reductions, benefit adjustments and campus staffing right‑sizing. The board set a target to identify approximately $11M in reductions while continuing to monitor legislative outcomes and appraisal appeals.