County planning team presents Clarion retail trends and recommends targeted policies to protect local businesses
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Summary
Planning staff presented Clarion consultants' retail land‑use findings: Fairfax County's retail vacancy is low (about 3.5%); recommendations included discouraging displacement, clarifying ground-floor retail locations, and repurposing underutilized retail for housing or industrial uses. Supervisors requested magisterial-district data and incentives to support legacy retailers.
Fairfax County planning and economic development staff briefed the Economic Initiatives Committee on national, state and regional retail trends and policy options recommended in a Clarion report. "A lot of our retail in Fairfax County is in shopping centers," Rebecca Mowgry, Department of Economic Initiatives, told the committee, and staff framed the Clarion findings to inform updates to the county's comprehensive plan policy amendment (Plan Forward).
Key data and findings: staff cited Census and CoStar figures showing roughly 2,500 retail-trade firms employing about 50,000 workers (rising to about 5,000 firms and 91,500 workers when accommodation and food services are included); the county has more than 230 shopping centers and about 45–50 million square feet of retail. Kelly (planning staff) summarized Clarion's market conclusions: by Q2 2024 national vacancy rates declined to their lowest in two decades, but vacancy varies by retail type; Northern Virginia and Fairfax vacancy rates reported near 3.4–3.8% (county figure later noted to have ticked to 3.5% per CoStar). "Ground floor retail space in our urban areas, particularly those tied to office, continue to experience high vacancies and are expected to remain under pressure until the office vacancy stabilize," Kelly said.
Recommendations and examples: Clarion recommended policies and tools to reduce displacement (right-of-return, relocation assistance, community benefits agreements), clarify where ground-floor retail is appropriate (main streets, transit corridors and areas with resident/worker critical mass), expand allowable uses for struggling commercial areas, and apply development agreements or incentives to preserve viable retail. Staff cited local examples of repurposing and redevelopment — Graham Park Plaza, Springfield Town Center, Tysons Corner Mall and Pan Am Shopping Center — and noted that Z Mod has increased flexibility for conversions and experiential uses (food halls, indoor recreation).
Supervisors asked for more granular data: several members requested vacancy and growth metrics disaggregated by magisterial district and for net-square-footage change by district to identify underperforming corridors. Staff said they would work with the Economic Development Authority and data teams to provide district-level figures. Concerns were raised about displacement risk when redeveloping parking lots or anchor-tenant sites and about strategies to support legacy or small retailers, including short-term pop-up programming and local incentives; staff said some ARPA-funded programs had supported businesses but that those funds have largely ended, and that the county can explore targeted supports and permitting adjustments for short-term uses.
No policy amendments were adopted at the meeting; staff will return with disaggregated data and possible options for minimizing displacement in redevelopment scenarios.
