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Fairfax officials warn of roughly $293 million shortfall in FY2026 budget forecast
Summary
County and school staff told a joint Fairfax County Board of Supervisors–school board meeting that an early FY2026 forecast shows about $128 million in projected new county revenue but a combined county–school shortfall of roughly $292.7–$293 million; staff emphasized figures are preliminary and subject to change before formal budget releases in January–February.
Chairman McKay and county and school budget staff told a joint budget-policy meeting on Nov. 26 that an early FY2026 forecast projects modest revenue growth but a large combined shortfall.
County staff said general fund revenue is projected to rise about 1.8% in FY2026—roughly $128,000,000—driven primarily by rising residential assessments. Schools staff reported an early projected increase of about $30,400,000 on the school revenue side. After accounting for known obligations—salaries and benefits, debt service and other recurring requirements—staff presented a combined net projected shortfall of about $292.7 million (reported in presentations as roughly $293 million). County and school officials repeatedly emphasized the numbers are preliminary and will be refined before the county executive’s advertised budget on Feb. 18 and the superintendent’s budget release on Jan. 23.
Officials cited several factors behind the pressure on the forecast. On the revenue side,…
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