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MOSFAR workshop uses strategic foresight to probe decarbonization, shoreline change and response challenges
Summary
MassDEP contractors led a strategic‑foresight workshop tying climate hazards, adaptations and decarbonization to MOSFAR program activities; attendees used future wheels and a 3‑Horizons exercise to surface transition risks for infrastructure, GRS plans and first‑responder capacity.
MassDEP contractors presented findings from a multi‑year climate project that mapped the MOSFAR program’s planning, training and response activities against future climate hazards and decarbonization pathways.
The project divided inquiry into three areas—hazards (storms, sea‑level rise), adaptations (engineering and nature‑based solutions) and decarbonization. Staff said exposure mapping identified Boston Harbor, New Bedford/Fairhaven and Vineyard Haven as ports with higher petroleum exposure. The report and workshop explored how shoreline change, shifting vessel traffic and offshore wind development could alter where and how geographic response strategies (GRS) must be anchored.
Presenters led interactive exercises—risk‑certainty matrices, future wheels and a 3‑Horizons framework (near‑term, transition and transformational futures to 2050+)—to surface assumptions and plausible scenarios. Participants raised concerns about aging infrastructure losing maintenance incentive during transitions, public acceptance and behavior change required for electrification, and new technical risks (for example, EV battery fires) connected to alternative fuels.
Program staff said these foresight activities help target near‑term actions: updating GRS site reviews, checking trailer/store locations for flood vulnerability, and strengthening local training touchpoints. The full final report and slides will be circulated to committee members and the public.
