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TACIR staff: COVID-19 recession had limited long-term effect on reported public infrastructure needs, but technology needs rose sharply
Summary
TACIR staff reported that the COVID-19 recession did not materially change statewide reported public infrastructure needs through July 1, 2021, although technology needs (laptops, hotspots) rose by 82% per capita from 2019 to 2020; fiscal effects of federal funding after July 1, 2021 were not captured in the analysis.
TACIR staff presented phase 2 of a two-part study on how recessions affect public infrastructure needs and found no overall change in reported infrastructure needs attributable to the COVID-19 recession through July 1, 2021. The analyst noted, however, that technology needs—particularly devices and internet access for remote learning—rose sharply during the pandemic.
Tyler Carpenter, presenting the phase-2 report, said staff used the Great Recession analysis as a baseline and found that technology needs increased by 82% per capita from 2019 to 2020, a change driven by purchases of laptops and Wi-Fi hotspots for remote learning. Carpenter also described short-term drops in fuel-tax collections and a recovery in state tax collections aided in part by online sales. The report is for review and comment and does not require a commission vote.
Staff cautioned that federal funding and longer-term investments made after July 1, 2021 are not captured in the dataset and could affect future infrastructure needs, citing potential increases in demand for school air filtration systems or other health-related facility investments.
Next steps: staff will continue to analyze trends and incorporate updates into the agency’s annual report on public infrastructure needs.
