Washington County warns Metro reallocation scenarios could cut SHS revenue by tens of millions

Molly Rogers, housing department presenter, told the Washington County Board of Commissioners at a Dec. work session that updated revenue forecasts and Metro's proposed reallocation scenarios could materially shrink the county's supportive housing services (SHS) revenue.

Rogers said the county's midline forecast lowers Washington County's share to about $98,700,000 from an earlier $115,000,000, a drop of roughly $16.4 million for the current fiscal year. She and staff also modeled longer-term effects: using standard escalators, they estimated a $32 million to $42 million gap in fiscal year 2027 compared with prior expectations.

Why it matters: County staff said those losses would require reducing the SHS program to an "essential" core of services to preserve the agency's ability to operate shelters, sustain some move-in assistance and continue building permanent supportive housing. Rogers told the board staff had rebalanced the program to protect capital projects while acknowledging that eviction prevention and some rapid-rehousing supports would be cut.

Metro scenarios and indexing: County staff explained Metro produced two scenario frameworks for reallocating the regional revenue stream. Scenario 1 sets an initial regional bucket at $250 million and Scenario 2 at $225 million; each scenario applies caps (for example, a $50 million regional affordable-housing allocation and $15 million for cities) and assumes indexing and phased tax-rate changes that could lower revenues over time. Under the scenarios, Rogers said Washington County's available SHS dollars could fall to roughly $90 million (scenario 1) or $80 million (scenario 2) by fiscal year 2027 depending on assumptions.

Program priorities and risks: Rogers and colleagues described the "essential system" the county modeled: a smaller eviction-prevention program (roughly halving household assistance from about 1,700 to 1,000 cases), preservation of key shelter capacity and two of three pod villages, an emphasis on project-based supportive housing as capital projects come online, and a 5% cap on administration. They warned that bifurcating capital funding (bonds) from operating funds would complicate project delivery and could put contingent awards and projects already in the pipeline at risk.

County finances and carryover: Staff told the board that the county had assigned much of a one-time carryover balance (previously cited as about $96,000,000 as of Aug. 31) toward projects; after recent contingent awards the remaining uncommitted carryover is approximately $14.6 million. Rogers said the SHS program is funded largely as a standalone revenue stream and that the county had repaid earlier interfund advances with SHS receipts; staff said they were not proposing general-fund substitutions for ongoing SHS obligations.

Next steps: Rogers said staff will return to the board next week with a memo detailing near-term fiscal-year impacts and options for cuts or mitigations. She emphasized uncertainty in Metro's forecasts and urged the board to consider triage steps to avoid dismantling the system already built. "If you ask me how anyone forecasts, I will say magic," Rogers said, underscoring the unpredictability of revenue projections.

What to watch: The board discussed city allocations and the potential role Metro would play in assuming some regional administrative costs; several commissioners asked staff to quantify recent county investments in Washington County cities and requested more detail on the timing and completion dates of bond-funded affordable-housing projects. The county also signaled it might request state operating funds for project-turnkey motels if local revenues decline.

Provenance: County presentation and Q&A summarized from staff remarks and commissioner questions during the SHS briefing.