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Experts urge caution: millionaire's tax offsets, Medicaid risk and immigration could sway FY26 outlook
Summary
Independent analysts and academics told the committee that millionaire's tax collections may be offsetting general revenue and that federal policy changes (Medicaid funding, immigration, tariffs) and capital‑gains volatility are key fiscal risks. Several witnesses recommended conservative budgeting and more transparent surtax estimates.
A coalition of independent analysts and academic economists told the Joint Committee on Ways and Means that while Massachusetts’ economy shows resilience, several federal and behavioral risks warrant a conservative approach to FY26 budgeting.
Doug Haugate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, presented MTF’s estimates — projecting non‑surtax revenue of about $39.7 billion for FY25 and roughly $40.9 billion for FY26 — and offered three practical recommendations: include an explicit surtax estimate in the consensus revenue benchmark rather than a fixed operating threshold; publish monthly surtax estimates (with error bands) to aid…
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