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County consultants: land-capacity analysis shows shortfall of low-income housing in East Sound UGA
Summary
Consultants reported a countywide surplus in overall housing capacity but identified a roughly 200-unit deficit for units serving very low to low-income households—concentrated in the East Sound urban growth area—prompting staff to flag possible land-use changes, density increases, or UGA boundary adjustments for council consideration.
Consultants from Leland Consulting Group presented the draft land capacity analysis (LCA) to the San Juan County Planning Commission on Dec. 20 and described methodology, assumptions and next steps, then answered commissioners' questions.
David Fisk, associate with Leland Consulting Group, said the county's LCA shows a modest countywide surplus in total housing capacity but a specific deficit of units serving households at 0—180 percent of area median income in East Sound. "The results of the LCA show a slight deficit within the county's housing capacity, and that's primarily for housing units serving low income households," Fisk said, noting those units typically require higher-density forms and subsidy.
Andrew Oliver reviewed key methodological choices—market factors applied to developable acreage, density assumptions by designation, seasonal/short-term-use discounts (a 20% reduction inside UGAs in the consultants' approach) and assumptions for accessory dwelling unit (ADU) uptake. Using state guidance (method C from Commerce) and county-specific adjustments, the analysis translates population targets into housing-unit targets and compares those with capacity estimates derived from parcel classifications and assumptions about redevelopment and achievable densities.
Commissioners probed the sensitivity of the deficit to assumptions. Commissioner Steve Smith said he had winter water-usage data suggesting East Sound vacancy rates may be higher than the consultants' assumption; Fisk invited staff to share that data and agreed to recheck certain calculations that commissioners flagged (notably jobs-population multipliers and how jobs were converted in the worksheets).
Consultants said the LCA identifies options the county could consider to close the lower-income-unit shortfall, such as targeted land-use changes to allow denser development in UGAs, adopting minimum densities, or expanding UGA area where appropriate. They emphasized that capacity does not guarantee production: additional policy, funding and regulatory incentives are typically required to convert capacity into subsidized units.
The commission provided feedback and asked staff to refine some assumptions and include alternative policy options when the analysis is forwarded to county council for direction.
