Board hears data on declining enrollment and weighs options for Patterson school

Superintendent Matt Hilton told the Tecumseh Public Schools Board on Dec. 9 that the district has lost students in recent years and that the board should use data-driven projections before deciding what to do with the closed Patterson facility. "Tonight is not about a decision," Hilton said, "it's about the process" the district will use to plan for the next three to five years.

Hilton summarized enrollment trends: the district is down 122 students from fall 2020 to fall 2024, Lenawee County has experienced notable population losses in recent years, and schools-of-choice and homeschooling appear to be part of the explanation. He outlined kindergarten and senior-class comparisons across recent years, saying the district welcomed 166 kindergarteners in 2022–23 and graduated 225 seniors that year; more recently the district welcomed 149 kindergartners in 2024–25 and anticipates graduating about 184 seniors. Hilton said these gaps suggest the district should test multiple scenarios rather than assume a single cause for the decline.

Hilton described Patterson's projected capital needs at about $1,500,000 over five years and floated possibilities for the site, including converting Patterson into an early-childhood center that could house preschool programs and young-five/kindergarten classes. He noted that the district currently has 73 preschool students (65 living in-district), about 40 of whom are GSRP-funded and 33 tuition-based, and that preschool is "budget neutral" for the district under current funding and enrollment levels.

To inform decisions, Hilton said the district will hire Stanford Associates to produce three enrollment projections — conservative, most likely and higher — over a three-to-five-year horizon. He said the firm will analyze county birth rates, local demographics, housing permits and other indicators, and return recommendations officials can use to align facilities and strategic planning. Trustees asked that the projected data be benchmarked against neighboring districts to show whether Tecumseh's trends are unique and to aid comparative planning.

Hilton closed by listing near-term outreach steps: promotional materials and school-tour events beginning after the new year, kindergarten and preschool roundups in the spring, and a prospective-family page on the district website. He said that after Stanford Associates completes the projections, he will consult with district leadership and the board’s budget and facilities committees before making a recommendation on Patterson.

Public comment during the meeting included parent Carrie Barton, who urged civility and thanked trustees for their service: "Be the change — keep personal concerns personal, and reach out to our board members directly," she said. The board's next steps are to accept the projection work, review comparative benchmarks, and schedule follow-up presentations before any facilities decision is made.