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Study: Storm losses to 137 coastal hotels and condos could put roughly $208 million of Alabama tax revenue at risk
Summary
A commission presentation showed probabilistic modeling of 137 coastal lodging and condo properties, estimating about $208 million in state-tax exposure and identifying historical scenarios (Frederick, Ivan) that project multimillion-dollar tax revenue losses; members directed staff to include the analysis in a legislative report.
Warren, a presenter to the Alabama Coastal Study Commission, told members that the team identified 137 coastal hotels, condominium associations and convention facilities and used detailed, manually geocoded building data to model storm losses and state tax exposure. The model, which blended vendor catalogs and historical events, produced a headline estimate of about $208,000,000 in potential tax-revenue impact tied to those entities.
Warren explained that the modeling is probabilistic and uses large simulated event catalogs from firms such as AIR/Verisk and RMS, supplemented by historical scenarios. He said the dataset included building values just over $4.9 billion and a total insured value (buildings plus tax-revenue exposure) of about $5.1 billion. The team assumed a member-borne deductible of 5% per location with a $100,000 minimum; modeled losses are the amounts above that retention.
On specif…
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