Centennial board hears budget warning after 89-student shortfall; district may face nearly $1 million impact

Director Paul Sotherton, the district's director of business and operations, told the Centennial School Board the district closed 2023-24 with revenue and expenses "just under 77,000,000" but is already seeing enrollment pressure for 2024-25. "Beginning this year, we, current enrollment in October was 5,550 students," Sotherton said, and later noted the district was "89 students lower than what we are forecasting and that's what you see on the 2nd row...which has monetary impact to the district of nearly $1,000,000."

Sotherton explained the district is funded on average daily membership (ADM), not head count, and that absences reduce ADM and thus state funding. "We're not funded on the number of students enrolled, but we're funded on the number of days that students attend," he said. Board members pressed for clarity on per-student spending and how statewide enrollment declines affect local budgets; Sotherton said general-fund totals divided by enrollment provide a per-student metric but cautioned that students' varied needs mean dollars are not evenly distributed.

The presentation flagged several near-term uncertainties: the governor's proposed budget includes changes to how the current service level (CSL) is calculated and a shorter "look-back" period for funding baselines, while the Oregon Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) has warned districts will see a 1.5% to 2% increase in retirement costs. Sotherton urged the board to prepare for a budget cycle that could include a roll-up cost near 6% for doing everything the same next year and said staff will revisit optional reductions mid-cycle if needed.

The board did not take formal fiscal action at the meeting; Sotherton said the budget work session in January will establish priorities that could shape reductions or shifts in the proposed budget before formal adoption in the spring and summer.