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Aurora October sales tax receipts fall; staff say recovery this year unlikely
Summary
City staff reported October sales tax receipts of $24.4 million, a 7.5% drop from Oct. 2023 and a year-to-date shortfall of about $2.2 million; staff said late Thanksgiving timing and a shift in filing frequency mean most holiday-driven sales will post in January, making a full recovery this year unlikely.
City staff told the Management & Finance Policy Committee that Aurora’s October sales tax receipts were $24,400,000, down $2,000,000 (7.5%) from October 2023 and leaving the city about $2,200,000 below its year-to-date projection.
"We’re now $2,200,000 below our sales tax projection," said Bill, the city presenter on revenues, noting October and September were both disappointing months. He added that variable sales-tax payments — one-time large business remittances largely tied to telecom and IT — boosted October by about $600,000 compared with last year, and without those payments October’s decline would have been closer to 10%.
The presenter said the city’s change in filing frequency — moving many taxpayers from quarterly or annual to monthly filings — alters month-to-month patterns, producing apparent dips every third month. Still, he warned, "there’s really not enough time left for us to recover this year," and said he would be "pretty surprised" if November and December returns fully closed the $2.2 million gap.
Council members asked whether online sales or inflation explain recent trends. Bill said online sales are growing and contribute some revenue — "our largest taxpayer is Amazon" — but that much holiday shopping will be concentrated in December because of a late Thanksgiving, and Aurora does not collect those December sales until January. He also said inflation in metro Denver has been relatively low recently and that higher interest rates appear to have curbed household spending compared with prior years of stronger growth.
City staff warned that related revenue streams tied to consumption — auto use tax and capital-related use tax, which feed the capital projects fund — were also behind projections. The presenter said the projected transfer to the capital projects fund is roughly $3.2 million below expectations, creating a constraint on planned capital funding.
The committee did not take a formal vote; staff said they will continue to monitor collections and report back as year-end data become available.
