Douglas Nino, the district’s information systems supervisor, told the Lakeville Public School District Board of Education that staff used a cohort‑survival model to produce a 60‑month enrollment projection and that the district is “roughly level with last year.” Superintendent Michael Baumann said he instructed staff to use cohort survival historic data as the district benchmark for planning.

The presentation showed total enrollment projected to grow by about 558 students — roughly a 5 percent increase — over the next five years, with growth concentrated in new‑housing areas. Nino overlaid permit and housing‑closing data with enrollment charts and said the pattern shows a lag between housing activity and enrollment changes.

Nino and Baumann cautioned that elementary capacity nationally and in the district is less immediately constrained than the middle‑school tier; the presentation singled out Century Middle School as the next facility pressure point the district will need to monitor. Nino said districtwide elementary capacity (combined nine elementary buildings) is not projected to approach maximum brick‑and‑mortar capacity in the short term, but middle‑school capacity will require attention as cohorts move up.

Board members pressed staff on several operational details: whether projections include parts of the district outside Lakeville city limits (staff said the current model used Lakeville numbers and they are working to include Elko New Market), how kindergarten variability affects elementary projections, early‑childhood capacity and the share of preschool students who remain in the district for kindergarten, and whether boundary adjustments or other short‑term measures (the district’s so‑called “fruit‑salad” approach) might redistribute students. Staff said more granular grade‑level and school‑level analysis will be available in February and that some nonpublic and homeschool enrollments were still being entered into the system.

The board asked the administration to return with more detailed, school‑level cohort runs and options — including boundary, intra‑district assignment, and timing implications — before any decisions about construction or additions are made.