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Board hears enrollment slide and state-aid risk; district sets 2025 SAFE estimate at 12,050 ADM
Summary
The Rapid City Area School District heard a CFOO presentation showing the fall 2024 SAFE count at 12,197 ADM (a 20-year low) and adopted a 2025 estimate of 12,050 ADM, a choice that will affect state aid timing and district cash flow.
The Rapid City Area School District Board heard an extended presentation from the district CFOO on Dec. 3 about enrollment trends and how the state-aid fall enrollment (SAFE) count drives the district’s budget.
The CFOO said the SAFE count for fall 2024 was 12,197 average daily membership (ADM), the lowest point in about 20 years, and reminded the board that the district’s high point was about 13,842 ADM in 2014. "The current state aid fall enrollment count, fall of 2024, September of this year, was 12,197 average daily membership," the CFOO said.
Facing uncertain trends, the district "decided at the end of that conversation to go with a 12,050 ADM number, which is a decrease of about 1.2%," the CFOO said. The board heard that SAFE estimates are used by the state for initial payments (the district is paid July–November on its estimate) and that a later reconciliation will adjust state aid for the second half of the fiscal year.
The CFOO emphasized the budgetary consequences: general-fund state aid for fiscal year 2025 was estimated at $37,800,000 and makes up roughly 37% of the district’s general-fund revenue. "If you undershot your estimate, it creates a very difficult situation where... you're getting all of that adjusted in a 6 month period as opposed to over the course of a year," the CFOO said, warning the board that large variances between estimate and final SAFE can disrupt cash flow.
Board members asked how enrollment shifts affect facilities and staffing across the district’s 23 buildings. The CFOO explained the district faces a "diseconomy of scale" when enrollment loss is uneven across many buildings and described why cutting staff and other costs in response to localized declines is complex.
Board discussion also covered drivers of enrollment loss. Acting Superintendent Dr. Strasser and the CFOO pointed to growth in homeschooling and alternative-education options and acknowledged state tracking does not capture every student who leaves for alternatives, making precise counts difficult. They also cited demographic factors, such as low birth rates, and community growth indicators including new residential construction and base expansion near Ellsworth Air Force Base.
What’s next: the board will use the 12,050 ADM estimate in early-state-aid calculations and monitor indicators throughout the legislative session and the coming months. The CFOO framed the estimate as cautious given the volatility of recent years and said the district will continue to compile data and discuss adjustments as new information becomes available.
