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LCRA update: basin remains dry though reservoirs sit above 2024 levels; October inflows just 9% of average
Summary
LCRA staff told the Operations Committee on Nov. 12 that the Lower Colorado basin remains largely in drought despite combined storage being higher than the same date in 2014; October inflows were about 11,000 acre-feet (≈9% of the monthly average).
John Hoffman, speaking to the Lower Colorado River Authority’s Operations Committee on Nov. 12, said the Lower Colorado basin remains drought-affected even as reservoir storage is in better shape than a decade ago.
Hoffman, who presented the basin conditions update, said October inflows into the basin totaled about 11,000 acre-feet — roughly 9% of the long-term October average of 125,000 acre-feet — and the median inflow was near 23% of its typical value. He said combined storage on Nov. 1 was about 1.74 million acre-feet (about 88% full) and that as of 7:25 a.m. on the meeting day combined storage was approximately 1.733 million acre-feet (about 87% full). "October is normally one of our wettest months," Hoffman said, noting that this year’s October was unusually dry.
Hoffman compared the current drought-monitor footprint to the same time in 2024, saying statewide drought coverage fell slightly from about 86% to about 84% but that the lower basin remained very dry: "Almost 94% of the basin is in some level of drought condition or abnormally dry," he told the committee. He identified pockets of modest easing above Lake Buchanan and near the Matagorda County coast but said most of the lower basin remains dry.
On individual reservoirs, Hoffman said Lake Travis was several feet above November average but about 12.4 feet below full and that projections showed a reasonable chance of being full or near full early next year if inflows increase. He said Lake Buchanan was about 7–8 feet above its November average and projected to be close to full through the early part of next year under current scenarios.
Hoffman also noted the Climate Prediction Center had declared a weak La Niña expected to persist through winter, and forecasters project above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall for the fall and winter months. "So far, they've been spot on — it's been warm and it's been dry," he said.
The committee did not take formal action on the basin update; staff will continue monthly monitoring and asked the board to watch conditions ahead of the March 1 availability determinations for interruptible water.
The committee chair scheduled no vote on the update and moved on to other items.
