Multnomah County reviews funding options for Preschool for All as advisory groups refine recommendations

County officials and consultants briefed the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners on the next phase of planning for Preschool for All, outlining how two advisory groups will evaluate tax mechanisms to determine whether they can fully fund the program.

Steven Herrera, senior policy advisor in the chair’s office, said the county’s technical advisory group (TAG) and program advisory group (PAG) will work together to test baselines and sensitivity scenarios and then recommend a funding mechanism that would be sustainable over a 10‑year threshold.

"The TAG is charged with reviewing the program's ongoing revenue needs and issuing recommendations regarding a Preschool for All tax to ensure sustainable funding," Herrera said. He described the PAG’s role as recommending program and policy changes that respond to TAG’s fiscal work while keeping equity and the ballot measure’s intent central.

Echo Northwest, the county’s economic research contractor, described Phase 2 modeling that will pair candidate tax mechanisms with sensitivity tests for population change, participation rates and program design choices (for example, six‑hour vs. ten‑hour program days). Britney Bagent, project director with Echo Northwest, said the firm will produce interactive tools and dashboards so commissioners can view how different assumptions change revenue and expenditure forecasts.

"We will apply a series of sensitivity tests — not just mechanism changes but population and participation levers — so you can see where the levers move fixed versus variable costs," Bagent said.

Commissioners pressed staff and consultants for the underlying program assumptions used in modeling. Commissioner Brim Edwards asked specifically for the demographic, service‑mix and timeline assumptions that Echo Northwest will use so the board can judge whether revenue scenarios reflect the program the county expects to implement.

Christian Gaston, an advisor working with the consultants, said TAG and PAG are asking the same questions as commissioners and are developing the cost‑driver analysis the board requested. "The goal is to present a series of web‑based models so you can actually look at the models yourselves and see how policy changes affect revenues," Gaston said.

Concerns about advisory group impartiality surfaced during the briefing. One commissioner raised unresolved questions about whether TAG members who are paid by organizations with stances on the tax should serve, and whether any perceived conflicts of interest had been assessed. Staff said conflict‑of‑interest forms were collected for every member and pledged to follow up with the county attorney’s office on any outstanding legal determinations.

Consultants listed the tax mechanisms TAG asked to model, including curiosity about a property tax option, delaying a planned 0.8% rate increase, means testing (co‑pays), credits for households living outside the county who work inside it, and indexing. Echo Northwest emphasized that the TAG’s ranking signaled interest in testing the math, not a recommendation to adopt any particular tax.

Staff told commissioners that TAG’s final scenario recommendations will be shared with PAG, which will integrate programmatic considerations, and that a synthesized board package is expected in March. Commissioners asked that the county present the modeling assumptions and interactive tools directly to the board on a schedule aligned with TAG/PAG meetings so elected officials do not need to rely solely on advisory committee sessions to obtain information.

Next steps: staff and consultants will present baseline results and a first set of sensitivity tests to TAG in the coming days, continue convening PAG, and provide the board with updated slide materials, the modeling dashboard and a timeline of briefings through spring.