Poudre School District warns of budget strain as enrollment falls; averaging and formula changes add urgency
Summary
District leaders told the school board on Dec. 9 that a drop of roughly 513 students this year, combined with state school‑finance changes (reducing averaging and a new formula), could reduce per‑pupil revenue and force difficult budget choices for FY27.
Poudre School District leaders told the Board of Education on Dec. 9 that recent enrollment declines and changes to the state school‑finance formula create a tightening fiscal picture for fiscal year 2027.
Budget Director Brian Gustafson summarized the district’s budget calendar and said October counts show a year‑over‑year decline of 513 non‑charter students. He described the student‑based budgeting process the district uses to allocate resources and said the state’s phase‑in of a new school‑finance formula and the phase‑out of pupil averaging will reduce the district’s stability buffer and could accelerate funding declines.
Gustafson and other staff explained that the governor’s budget proposal showed a statewide total‑program increase per pupil (presentation referenced an inflation‑driven figure), but district‑level calculations depend on multiple locality factors (at‑risk weighting, cost‑of‑living factor, locale factor) and PSD’s current mix means the district’s per‑pupil increase estimate is smaller than the statewide average in the early runs of the model. Board members asked for modeling of an immediate elimination of averaging; staff said they have runs and will provide more detailed fiscal scenarios.
Superintendent Keith Kingsley and board leadership asked the community and employees to help manage expectations as the district prepares for multi‑year budget planning tied to literacy, mental health and graduation‑with‑options priorities. Kingsley said the presentations from the state demographer and local workforce partners reinforce the need to align services and staffing to likely enrollment and economic conditions.
Next steps: staff will return enrollment projections in January, provide revised current‑year budget documents in January, and continue multiyear modeling to support board decisions in spring budget sessions.
