Monticello projects modest enrollment decline; district expects capacity to hold

Director of Business Services Tina Burkholder presented the Monticello district’s enrollment forecast for 2026–27, explaining several projection methods and the demographic and housing factors that drive them. Burkholder said the district’s five‑year net change was a loss of about 158 students (approximately a 3.85% decline) and presented a projected enrollment for 2026–27 she stated as approximately 3,008 students.

Burkholder reviewed open‑enrollment flows and noted the district gained students from Big Lake (net +164 last year) and lost students to Saint Michael–Albertville (net −160). She described methodological options for kindergarten forecasting (county birth rates, linear progressions, weighted averages) and said she typically uses a middle, county‑birth method. Burkholder also said last year’s kindergarten shortfall drove much of the gap between projection and actual enrollment and that the district tends to lose students during the school year, especially at the high‑school level.

The presentation addressed facility capacity, and Burkholder said current building space is adequate to absorb the projected enrollment in the next five years. She highlighted housing starts—48 single‑family permits in 2024 and 35 year‑to‑date at the time of the presentation—as a factor that could reverse declines if trends continue.

Board members asked about exit and entry surveys; the chair confirmed the district collects questionnaires from departing students and the district also surveys families who open‑enroll into Monticello.

Ending: The board accepted the projection information for planning purposes; any staffing or facility changes would follow additional analysis and formal board action at future meetings.