County advisers model multiple tax options as commissioners press for clear assumptions on Preschool for All

Multnomah County staff and consultant Echo Northwest presented a progress update on the Preschool for All program and the technical advisory group's work on financing options, answering sustained board questions about which tax mechanisms could sustain the program.

Steven Herrera, senior policy adviser in the chair's office, said the county's approach pairs fiscal analysis with program-level planning: "The TAG is charged with reviewing the program's ongoing revenue needs and issuing recommendations regarding Preschool for All tax to ensure sustainable funding," he said. Echo Northwest summarized Phase 1 work and described Phase 2, which applies sensitivity tests to baseline conditions such as population change and participation rates.

Echo Northwest said the TAG compiled a ranked list of mechanisms it wants modeled. Those include a property tax concept, delaying a planned 0.8% increase in 2027, credits for households living outside the county but working inside it, and indexing options across mechanisms. Project director Brittany Bejent said the property tax ranking reflected curiosity about feasibility rather than a recommendation: the TAG "wanted to understand what the math was," she told the board.

Commissioners repeatedly pressed whether any proposed mechanism would "fully fund" Preschool for All under current projections. One commissioner said: "Which one of these proposals would fully fund the program? Based on our current projections we have us in the red." Echo Northwest replied it is evaluating mechanisms against a 10-year threshold and working with county staff to define what sustainability means for the program.

Christian Gaston, who is supporting the advisory work, told the board the same policy and program questions are being raised by TAG and PAG members: "What are the big cost drivers? How can you evaluate this program from a budgetary perspective to understand whether you're facing a recession and need to address that through budgetary action or whether you have tax policy questions?" He said the teams are building models and a public-facing dashboard that will allow commissioners to view scenario inputs and outputs.

Several commissioners asked that the county share all modeling assumptions in advance of TAG and PAG meetings so elected members can track what inputs are being used. Commissioner Brim Edwards and others emphasized that the board needs both the fiscal assumptions and a clearer picture of program design (for example, half-day versus full-day options and the mix of service hours) before committing to a financing plan. Staff agreed to provide those materials and to make the TAG's baseline and sensitivity results available at upcoming briefings, including a board briefing on Dec. 16 and a tentative work session in January.

Echo Northwest and county staff said community engagement will inform the recommendation framework. Herrera noted that Lara Media's outreach gathered input from nearly 2,000 survey respondents and 84 group participants and that community priorities (equity, bilingual access, workforce supports, transparent reporting) will shape program and tax recommendations.

Next steps: staff and consultants will deliver baseline models and early sensitivity tests to the TAG, produce a dashboard for board review, and bring synthesized TAG and PAG recommendations to the board next spring for deliberation on specific mechanisms and any required implementation actions.