State demographer warns of prolonged decline in school-age population; regional workforce study highlights commuting and talent gaps
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Summary
Colorado’s state demographer told the Poudre Board that lower fertility and weaker net migration will reduce the school-age population in Larimer County for years; a companion Northern Colorado workforce analysis offered tools and strategies for aligning schools and employers to retain and attract working families.
The Poudre School District heard two data-driven briefings on Dec. 9 that the district’s leaders said will factor into enrollment projections and long-term budget planning.
Kate Watkins, state demographer for Colorado, presented updated population projections and told the board Larimer County’s latest vintage projects fewer school-age children than prior estimates. Watkins said lower fertility rates and weaker net migration have combined to downgrade county projections by about 7.5% through 2050 compared with last year’s outlook and that Larimer County could face natural population decline earlier than the state average (Watkins cited natural decline as possible in the county in the late 2020s). She emphasized that long-term enrollment depends heavily on net migration and that housing affordability is a key downside risk.
Watkins showed scenario analyses: a low-net-migration scenario that produces an ongoing decline in school-age population, and a low-fertility scenario with still-steeper declines. She also noted Larimer County’s fertility rate is notably below replacement (Watkins gave county-level estimates) and said that changes in immigration policy and national mobility trends are key drivers.
A second presentation from the Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce and partners summarized a Northern Colorado workforce analysis and an interactive dashboard developed with TIP Strategies. Presenters said the region is a jobs hub that imports workers (many people commute into Fort Collins), and the dashboard maps talent supply and demand clusters, educational attainment, and job-quality metrics. The analysis flagged health care, education and life-science–adjacent sectors as major employers and recommended partnerships with PSD on career-technical education and regional talent strategies to retain students and attract families.
Board members and district staff asked for additional sub-county and school-district–level breakdowns and for the demographer’s underlying assumptions; Watkins said the office will provide methodology files and that the office is beginning scenario and sensitivity work to quantify uncertainty.
What happens next: district staff and board members said the data will inform FY27 enrollment projections and the student-based budget process, and that further briefings and a comprehensive planning report are expected in January.