Superintendent says enrollment decline ‘has slowed’ as district weighs staffing and budget choices
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Summary
South Kingstown superintendent presented the NESDAC enrollment report, saying projected declines have moderated and noting the district currently has 42 more students than last year’s projection; trustees cautioned against making staffing cuts based solely on projections.
Superintendent Mister Portaza told the South Kingstown School Committee that the district’s latest NESDAC enrollment report shows the previously forecast decline "has slowed down, and is flattening a bit," and that the district currently has 2,186 students — 42 more than last year’s projection of 2,144. He said the gap matters for budget planning because relying only on projection models can lead to premature staff reductions.
The superintendent framed the NESDAC data as a planning tool rather than a final accounting. He said the report covers anticipated seats in district schools and "does not include incoming CTE, privately enrolled students to whom we provide services, outplaced students or charter/state school choice" enrollments. Committee members pressed for clarity on what is counted and how quickly the district can translate the projections into staffing needs.
Trustees emphasized caution. One member said such reports are a "good guardrail" but warned against using them as the sole basis for year-to-year personnel decisions. Portaza said he has not completed a full staffing analysis from the new report but that modest year-over-year differences spread across multiple grade levels are unlikely to drive immediate, definitive budget moves. He noted that larger cumulative discrepancies over several years could require consolidation or other adjustments.
The superintendent said the full NESDAC report will be made available to the public and highlighted page 4 as the most useful snapshot for tracking cohort trends and projected aggregate year-over-year changes. He said the district will continue to monitor in-district enrollment and will avoid embedding staffing cuts in a budget based solely on modeled projections.
The committee voted to accept the superintendent’s report; members requested the district return with any follow-up analysis that links NESDAC projections to concrete staffing scenarios and budget implications.