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Council staff warns of multi-year revenue shortfall; FY26 stable but FY27 projected down

Montgomery County Council · December 10, 2025
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Summary

Council staff presented a midyear fiscal-plan update: FY26 revenues are roughly on track, but projections show a sizeable downward revision beginning in FY27 driven by lower property- and income-tax forecasts; staff estimated the plan could face roughly $850 million less resources over the planning period compared with June projections.

Council staff and the county’s financial team presented a midyear update to the six-year fiscal plan, warning that while fiscal 2026 remains roughly on track, projections show a material revenue reduction beginning in FY27.

Staff said FY26 has a negligibly lower revenue outlook (about -$1 million) but cautioned that projected revenues for FY27 have deteriorated compared with the June assumptions. The staff presentation identified two primary drivers: lower property-tax projections (totaling close to $530 million less over the plan period compared with June) and slower income-tax growth (about $311 million less). Overall, council staff characterized the updated picture as a potential $850 million reduction in available resources through the multi-year plan versus the June assumptions.

The report noted that some of the FY27 balancing relies on the county’s reserves (council staff cited a $75 million use of reserves in the FY27 assumptions) and warned against depending on one-time reserves to backstop ongoing costs. Staff explained the county’s income-tax models use multi-year data including wage and salary projections from outside vendors and noted uncertainty tied to delayed federal data, a recent government shutdown and state-level fiscal developments.

OMB Director Jennifer Bryant and finance staff said they are monitoring state and federal developments, including a Board of Revenue Estimates update and the governor’s budget. Councilmembers pressed for an executive branch plan with guiding principles to manage the fiscal risk; staff said departments are being asked to prioritize requests and identify one-time investments that could be funded from reserves if appropriate.

Councilmembers agreed the updated picture requires urgent attention; staff urged caution about relying on reserves and highlighted that decisions in March’s recommended budget will be pivotal.