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County accepts emergency‑shelter evaluation that finds beds expanded but exits to housing lag

December 09, 2025 | San Joaquin County, California


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County accepts emergency‑shelter evaluation that finds beds expanded but exits to housing lag
The Board of Supervisors voted to accept an implementation and outcomes evaluation of emergency shelter services in San Joaquin County that examined fiscal‑year data and client‑level records from 2022 through 2024.

Consultant Melanie Astarzio summarized key findings: homelessness in the county has increased across measurement methods; in 2024 shelter providers served nearly 8,000 individuals across about 4,500 households; as of January 2025 there were 46 shelters providing 1,393 beds. Despite a 32% increase in bed capacity since 2020, the county remains short of need: Astarzio said the system would be short more than 3,000 adult beds and more than 300 youth beds if the county tried to shelter everyone estimated unsheltered on the last point‑in‑time count.

The evaluation found shelter stays vary widely: roughly one‑quarter of clients self‑exit in under a week while another quarter remain longer than six months; about 11% had stays exceeding one year. Initial exit‑to‑permanent‑housing measures showed about 7% of shelter clients exiting to permanent housing, but the consultant said linking shelter data with housing program enrollments raised the exit rate to about 15% when matches were found.

Report recommendations include establishing a locally defined standard for “low barrier” sheltering, improving funding allocations to reflect client complexity and program type, dedicating HMIS data‑entry resources to improve outcome tracking, creating coordinated performance dashboards, and expanding staff training (trauma‑informed care, motivational interviewing). The consultant and county staff emphasized that family and youth shelters reported better housing exit rates than many adult shelters and urged targeted investments in programs that offer case management and housing navigation.

Board members thanked staff and the consultant for the analysis; the board approved accepting the report and directed county staff and the Continuum of Care to use findings to pursue implementation steps including convenings and targeted funding processes.

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