State demographer: Nevada will keep growing but more slowly; migration—not births—now drives growth
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Summary
State demographer Christopher Wright told the Economic Forum Nevada's growth is increasingly driven by migration, not natural increase; the statewide median age rose to 39.5 in 2024 and REMI-based projections show the state reaching about 3.7 million by 2044, with growth concentrated in Clark and Washoe counties.
Christopher Wright, Nevada's state demographer, presented the state's December 2025 population outlook to the Economic Forum, stressing that migration is the primary source of recent growth while fertility has flattened and remains below earlier peaks. "Far fewer teens are having children today compared to the past," he said, summarizing national birth trends, and he added that Nevada's births have leveled after declines that followed the Great Recession.
Wright showed county patterns: Clark, Washoe, Lyon and Nye counties account for most in-migration, while many rural counties still see deaths outpacing births. Nevada's median age increased from 36.3 in 2010 to 39.5 in 2024, he said, with rural counties aging faster while urban areas remain younger because of working-age in-migrants.
On projections, Wright said the state's 20-year REMI-model forecasts (using REMI v3.3) project Nevada's population to reach roughly 3.7 million by 2044, but with a slowing growth rate (from about 1% now toward ~0.5% in the 2030s). He cautioned that projections are sensitive to housing availability, commuting patterns, international migration policy and other risks and offered to follow up on more granular origin data for migrants.
Members asked whether in-migration was more retirement-driven or employment-driven; Wright said county-level patterns provide clues (for example, Douglas County draws older migrants while Clark County's inflows skew younger and job-related) but he did not have definitive origin-country breakdowns available for the meeting.