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Economic Forum: FY2025 closeness to forecast masks timing, one-time items; FY2026 ahead but driven by carryover and timing
Summary
At the Dec. 5 Economic Forum staff said FY2025 general fund collections were about $22 million below the May forecast, noting an $83 million commerce-tax timing shortfall and a one-time $135 million unclaimed-property deposit; year-to-date FY2026 is $102.5 million above forecast but largely reflects timing shifts and one-offs.
The Economic Forum met Dec. 5 to review final fiscal-year 2025 collections and early FY2026 receipts. Fiscal Analysis Division staff told members that net general fund collections for FY2025 ended roughly $22 million below the May 1 forecast but that two unusual items explained most of the difference: an $83 million shortfall in commerce-tax receipts caused by a payment-system problem compounded by a state cyber incident, and an unusually large unclaimed-property transfer of about $135 million into the general fund.
"Commerce tax collections came in significantly below forecast by about $83,000,000," Haley Owens, deputy fiscal analyst, said during the presentation. She told members the Department of…
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