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City sustainability study finds all‑electric ductless homes can be cost‑competitive; council weighs codes and outreach
Summary
A consultant study presented to Flagstaff City Council found that, for new construction, well‑designed all‑electric ductless homes can reach cost parity or be less expensive than mixed‑fuel homes; consultant recommended adopting the 2024 IECC (with stretch appendix), electric‑ready/solar‑ready provisions, outreach and incentive programs while council and public raised grid reliability and retrofit concerns.
A consultant hired by the Flagstaff Sustainability Office told the City Council Tuesday that, in many modeled scenarios, new all‑electric ductless homes can be cost‑competitive with traditional mixed‑fuel construction and that energy efficiency often reduces operational costs.
Emily Artale, who led the study, said her team combined building‑energy modeling with confidential interviews of 13 local builders to produce locally grounded cost estimates. "It's very likely that a new all electric ductless home can be less expensive to build than a traditional mixed fuel home or at least be cost parity," she said.
The study examined six single‑family scenarios and four multifamily scenarios. Average capital estimates cited in the presentation included roughly $14,500 for a mixed‑fuel system and about $17,000 for a ducted all‑electric cold‑climate heat pump system; ductless all‑electric systems were near $14,000 in the consultant's modeling. Emily noted variability in gas connection fees and rebates: "When you have a new home that connects to natural gas, Unisource charges you a connection fee of up to $3,000," she said, and builders reported inconsistent rebate awareness.
Operational costs depended heavily on electric rate structure, Artale said. Under some APS rate options, all‑electric ductless systems had lower annual energy costs than mixed‑fuel counterparts; under fixed rates they could be higher. The consultant factored a projected APS rate increase for 2026 into some ROI calculations.
Recommendations in the study included adopting the 2024 International Energy Conservation Code with the RJ stretch appendix, adopting electric‑ready and solar‑ready provisions for new construction, intensive education/outreach to builders and buyers, hosting cooking demonstrations to compare gas and induction stoves, offering targeted incentives and considering a heat‑pump cooperative to lower equipment costs.
Council members and the public raised concerns about retrofits, workforce capacity and grid reliability. Council Member Matthews asked whether local pricing was used for modeling; Artale replied that pricing came from conversations with local contractors. Public commenter Tom Pearson told the council that promoting all‑electric homes poses risks in Flagstaff's winter climate if the grid fails, calling for redundancy: "By aggressively subsidizing electric only homes, you are creating a perfect storm of life threatening conditions," he said. Council members and staff noted that gas furnaces also rely on electricity for blowers and that gas cooking appliances can operate during outages, but concerns about backup power, vulnerable residents and retrofit costs persisted.
What comes next: sustainability staff said the full report will be posted and used to inform future code update discussions and program planning; the study itself will not return as an action item but could influence code and incentive proposals later.
