Atherton finance panel hears HDL—s property-tax review and $14.5 million revenue forecast

Atherton—s finance committee received a detailed review of the town—s property-tax roll for fiscal year 2025-26 and a revenue forecast that staff and HDL consultants said officials should treat conservatively.

Paul from HDL explained that property taxes are a lagging indicator: the assessor compiles the roll from January through June, the auditor applies direct assessments in July and August, and bills are typically printed and mailed in September and October with the first payment due in November 2025. "Property taxes are a lagging indicator of what you're seeing out there," Paul said, describing the sequence from assessor to auditor to treasurer.

HDL presented gross assessed value and net taxable figures and noted that exempt properties reduce the taxable base. The consultant reported a total gross value figure for the town of $17,900,000,000 and said roughly $450,000,000 of value is exempt and therefore not taxed. HDL also summarized how Prop 13-era allocations and subsequent shifts (including ERAF transfers) determine each agency—s share; the largest tax-rate area showed the town—s representative share near 8.5 cents and the blended town share at about 8.33 cents.

Sales and new construction explain much of year-over-year change, HDL said. The presenter highlighted several very large sales that drove the roll—s dollar changes, including a reported sale cited in the presentation at 30 Atherton Avenue (presented as a large outlier). Paul warned that sales completed late in the calendar year may not appear in the next fiscal allocation because of processing lags.

HDL—s near-term revenue estimate for the town—s general fund was presented at $14,511,008.55. The consultant told the committee the forecast assumes a conservative CPI capture (1.85% used in the roll example) and modest new-construction input; he recommended staff not budget at the higher historical average because sales and new-construction timing remain uncertain.

Committee members asked for further detail on completed versus in-progress construction permits and for a follow-up forecast tool staff will deliver in mid-March prior to the council—s budget process. The presentation materials were made available to the committee for additional review.