East Haven board reviews enrollment projections, flags space and housing risks
Summary
Board members reviewed a 2021–31 projection and updated enrollment counts, noting pre-K expansion, a provisional 2024 birth increase, and proposed housing projects that could add roughly 600 units — factors the district says could change near‑term kindergarten and facility needs.
The East Haven Board of Education on Dec. 9 reviewed updated enrollment data and the 2021–31 projection prepared by Dr. Prada, focusing on near‑term implications for kindergarten, building use and staffing.
A district presenter walked the board through the report and district November enrollment pulls, noting Dr. Prada had forecast a modest overall decline across the decade with the steepest drop expected in kindergarten. The presenter said the 2021 analysis separated pre‑K and kindergarten for modeling and grouped other grades in bands for forecasting. The board was shown side‑by‑side screenshots of the report projections and the district's internal counts.
Board members pressed for clarity on assumptions that underpinned the projection. The presenter highlighted three items not fixed at the time of the study: continued enrollment in Open Choice programs (the projection assumed about 26 nonresident Open Choice students by 2031), an outflow of preschool children who do not enter district schools, and modeled town birth rates and fertility assumptions used to generate cohorts.
Local housing developments emerged as a key potential disruptor. A district speaker compiled a list of seven projects under discussion that, if built, could add roughly 600 housing units to town; cited examples included Sperry Lane (roughly 378 units), a Moore project (~30 units) and Mariners Point (~70 units). Officials said those projects could create real‑estate turnover that attracts families and increases school enrollment, but emphasized that approvals and construction schedules remain uncertain.
The presenter also flagged provisional town birth‑rate data that were not reflected in older modeling: a provisional count of 295 births in 2024, compared with 216 in 2023. The presenter estimated that difference could translate to roughly 30 additional kindergarten‑age children — enough to require an additional classroom at the elementary level.
Board members called for follow‑up data before large facility or redistricting decisions: suggested next steps included a workshop on space utilization and school floor plans, a breakdown of class sizes (max/min/average) by building and grade band, and consideration of whether to commission an updated projection study once local housing project approvals are clearer. One board member noted the prior projection update had been described as “reasonable” in cost, so updating the study was an option the board could pursue if members preferred more current modeling.
The board did not take formal action on enrollment policy at the meeting; it directed staff to gather the additional data and return with a plan for a future workshop and potential study update.
