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FCPS staff outline causes and strategies for recent graduation and dropout shifts; board asks for deeper analysis
Summary
Fairfax County Public Schools presented Goal 5 data showing a slight decline in graduation measures after pandemic-era flexibility ended, highlighted persistent gaps for multilingual learners and students with disabilities, and described recovery, engagement and transition strategies. Board members requested more disaggregated analysis, ABLE-linked course-taking review and possible legislative fixes for CTE credit rules.
Marcie Neal, assistant superintendent for strategy, planning and learning, told the Fairfax County School Board on Dec. 2 that Goal 5 reporting focuses on graduation success and compares two measures: an "on-time" graduation rate used for strategic-plan accountability and the federal 4-year graduation indicator (FGI), which "does not include the applied studies diploma," so it is typically lower.
Neal presented longitudinal data showing that pre-pandemic (2019) the division—s on-time graduation rate was 91% and the 4-year FGI was 86%, that rates rose during the pandemic when the state allowed flexibility, and that 2025 rates dipped slightly as that flexibility expired while remaining above 2019 on-time levels. Neal cautioned that the FGI understates outcomes for students who are legally permitted to extend graduation timelines or who earn applied studies diplomas.
Neal called out disparities: "we see lower rates for our multilingual learners and Hispanic students," and staff highlighted that students with disabilities and multilingual learners show the largest gaps between on-time and FGI because of diploma-type and timing differences. She also explained cohort and dropout counting rules and noted the 2024 cohort was the only recent cohort with a dropout rate below 4%.
Board members pressed staff for more granular analysis. "Is there any way it could make its way into the report so that we can just read who it is that we're talking about when we're discussing dropouts?" asked Dr. Anderson, requesting grade-level and demographic breakdowns and other factors the board could use to target interventions. Staff said that analysis exists and that ABLE partnership work will provide student-level course-taking and advisement data to guide targets and interventions.
On outreach and reasons for dropout, Chief of Schools Giovanni Ponce said the division conducts targeted outreach: "we try really hard as soon as a student kinda hits that 15 day drop mark" and counselors and on-time graduation coordinators do intensive re-engagement. On drivers, staff identified credit deficiency, interrupted education and family/work obligations; Ponce added that many students who drop are balancing work and language acquisition, saying they have "to have 2 jobs and go to class as well."
Staff also outlined strategies the division is pursuing: a new graduation-status feature in ParentVUE and StudentVUE to help families track progress; expanded credit-recovery and summer programming; placement of on-time graduation resource teachers and career-center specialists; broader CTE offerings and pilots; and a new standard course to support career exploration and IEP transition planning for students with disabilities.
Board members repeatedly raised the advanced-studies diploma as both an equity and measurement issue. Citing appendix figures, Dr. Anderson recited differential attainment rates across groups (e.g., 83% for Asian students, 55% for Black students, 46% for Hispanic students, and much lower shares for students with disabilities and multilingual learners) and asked staff to explain course-taking and advising patterns that produce the gap. Staff pointed to ABLE—s work on course-mapping and academic advisement as the path to detailed answers and said they can return with targeted analysis.
Several trustees also asked about apprenticeships, work-based learning and structural barriers to CTE access (licensure, facility costs, and state rules about awarding credit). Miss Merritt proposed that the board ask the superintendent to prepare draft language for state legislative changes to open off-site or nontraditional locations for CTE credit; the chair recorded unanimous consensus among members present to proceed with staff drafting (not a formal board vote).
What happens next: staff promised follow-up items including the deeper ABLE-linked analyses, enrollment counts for new courses and programs, clearer definitions and raw numbers for outcome percentages, and options for board decisions on targets or legislative action. The board recessed for lunch and resumed with the secondary course-offerings briefing at 1 p.m.
