Early data: eighth‑edition sentencing guidelines show continued high conformity but analysts urge caution

Commission staff presented a cautious, preliminary look at how the eighth‑edition sentencing guidelines are performing in practice using the first ten months of 2025 data.

Staff noted the share of sentences in the eighth edition increased over 2024 and by the first ten months of 2025 represented roughly 60–75% of sentenced cases in the sample. Prior‑record score 0 remains the most common category (about 41–45%). When considering guideline recommendations, staff reported that around 84% of guideline recommendations fall into the lower levels (probation or county confinement) while imposed state confinement rates in the sample were lower (about 6.8% under eighth edition versus about 11.2% previously).

On conformity, staff reported 41% of eighth‑edition sentences were imposed within the standard range and roughly 70% were within the standard+aggravated+mitigated widths, compared with about 63% and 80% respectively under the seventh edition. The team emphasized caveats: the 2025 sample covers ten months and may underrepresent more complex or higher‑severity cases that take longer to proceed through the courts.

Staff recommended more time and data to analyze where departures occur by offense type and county. "We don't have enough data to do more detailed dives...we need a lot more data to be able to cross it that way," one presenter said. The commission plans to revisit conformity analysis as additional months of eighth‑edition cases accumulate.