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USU researchers present higher‑fidelity salt‑mass and 3‑D hydrodynamic models for Great Salt Lake
Summary
Utah State University researchers described a lake‑wide mass‑balance salt model and an emerging 3‑D hydrodynamic model intended to improve daily elevation and salinity predictions, identify monitoring gaps (breach flows, deep‑brine sampling), and inform adaptive management of the lake.
Utah State University researchers on the Great Salt Lake modeling team presented new tools aimed at improving managers’ ability to predict lake elevation and salinity, and to test “what‑if” scenarios for berm operations and breach geometry.
Diana Dunn, a research engineer at the Utah Water Research Lab at Utah State University, described a lake‑wide, process‑based mass‑balance model that divides the system into three control volumes — the North arm, the upper brine layer and the deep brine layer — and runs at a daily time step to track water and salt fluxes. “Our goal was to develop a lake wide process based mass balance model that can accurately predict lake elevation and salinity at a daily time step,” Dunn said.
The model uses gauge data for the Weber, Jordan and Bear rivers, PRISM precipitation datasets, groundwater estimates from a 2024 UGS publication (roughly 0.17 km3/yr for the South and 0.34 km3/yr for the North), and a daily average assumption for mineral extraction because intra‑annual extraction patterns are not well measured. To represent the deep brine layer the team implemented a wind‑mixing algorithm calibrated to observed deep‑layer volume (about 9% of south‑arm volume during 2017–2023) and included a 25% mineral return flow assumption to the upper brine layer at halite saturation.
