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Blue Valley projects flat enrollment for next five years despite small decline this year

Blue Valley Board of Education · December 9, 2025
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Summary

Blue Valley’s 2025–26 count-day enrollment was 21,563, down about 140 students from last year. District officials presented a five-year projection showing fairly steady enrollment, noted kindergarten declines, and said schools remain within capacity guidelines.

Blue Valley school officials told the Board of Education on Dec. 8 that district enrollment is essentially stable and projected to remain so over the next five years.

Eric Polam, assistant director of planning and operations, said the district’s 2025–26 count-day enrollment was 21,563, down roughly 140 students from last year. Polam emphasized that the measure most relevant to funding is FTE enrollment, which excludes virtual-only students, and noted cohort growth in many grades despite the year-over-year dip.

The report highlighted a modest decline in kindergarten after years of rapid growth, with kindergarten cohorts recently ranging between about 1,415 and 1,550 students. Polam said last year’s unusually small kindergarten class, combined with an outgoing senior class of about 1,847, contributed to the net decrease in headcount.

Polam described the district’s five-year projection model as neighborhood-level and data-driven, taking into account new housing, turnover in established neighborhoods and recent building activity. He said new residential permits — which once exceeded 1,000 single-family homes annually — have settled closer to 400 per year, with perturbations; the district recorded roughly 214 new homes last year and 335 this year, figures Polam described as approximate indicators of housing-driven enrollment change.

Polam warned the district monitors monthly housing starts and said officials would begin conversations if building activity unexpectedly accelerates. ‘‘We would, if that started to really take off, we would be having some conversations very quickly,’’ Polam said.

On capacity, Polam said all elementary schools are projected to remain under the district’s 110% threshold that typically triggers consideration of boundary adjustments, new construction or program moves. A new middle school opening next year (Will Springs Middle) is expected to relieve pressure in the southeast and southwest growth areas, he said.

Board members asked whether the district has the capacity to absorb a larger-than-expected increase in students; Polam replied the district is prepared to respond with a suite of planning tools and that current projections place most schools within comfortable utilization ranges.

The board will revisit enrollment data and projections in its annual update; Polam said the district will continue monitoring demographic trends, birth rates and mortgage-rate impacts that affect housing turnover.

The board took no formal action on the enrollment report; officials said they will update projections yearly and adjust planning as housing and demographic patterns evolve.