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Williamsville enrollment forecast: Dr. Grossman projects modest growth and stable K'12 numbers
Summary
Dr. Grossman presented the annual enrollment projection, forecasting relative stability districtwide with a projected uptick of roughly 200 students over the next five years and recommending staff monitor residential developments that could affect select schools.
Dr. Grossman presented the Williamsville Central School District's annual enrollment projections, summarizing the data and assumptions the district uses to forecast student counts.
Grossman said the report (housed in BoardDocs) relies on factors including kindergarten cohort size, birth-rate trends, migration, residential development, private/charter enrollments and dropout rates. He reiterated there are no new assumptions this year and that kindergarten cohorts are expected to remain smaller for at least four years.
Reviewing recent history, Grossman said K'12 enrollments decreased by about 50 students over the last five years but have been relatively stable overall. He noted a large 12th-grade cohort is graduating this year and highlighted that the district could see a modest net increase of about 200 students districtwide over the next five years, with variability across elementary and middle schools. He specifically identified Dodge, Maple East and Maple West as elementary schools to watch given proposed developments in their neighborhoods.
Grossman recommended periodic staff checks of local housing projects to determine whether development phases are advancing (sales, site clearing) because residential timelines can shift projections by several years. He closed by reiterating that while overall stability is expected, targeted planning will be needed where localized population changes occur.
No formal board action on the projections was recorded at the meeting; the presentation was informational.
