District projects stable enrollments with modest near‑term uptick, consultant says

Dr. Grossman, the district’s long‑time enrollment consultant, briefed the Williamsville Central School District Board of Education on Nov. 18 and said overall K–12 enrollment has been relatively stable, declining by about 50 students over the past five years on a base of roughly 10,000. He attributed enrollment trends to birth‑rate changes, migration into the district and residential development.

Using historical birth‑rate correlations and migration assumptions, Grossman said kindergarten classes have fluctuated but in‑migration has mitigated steeper declines and that staff should expect modest growth over the next five years — on the order of about 200 additional students district‑wide. He noted localized pressures: some elementary and middle schools near proposed housing developments could see noticeable increases that warrant attention.

Grossman recommended periodic site visits to gauge the progress of housing developments and adjust projections if developers begin selling or clearing sites, because satellite images and GIS data can lag ground conditions. Board members thanked Grossman for his years of service; this presentation was noted as his final year presenting to the district.

What’s next: Staff will review the report in board materials and monitor development activity that could affect school‑level capacity and staffing decisions.