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USGS presents salinity forecasts; advisory council eyes single monthly 'upper‑brine' metric for management
Summary
USGS briefed the council that South Arm shallow salinities measured in late February averaged about 115 g/L and that spring/fall 2025 salinity could range widely by climate scenario. Committee members debated a consistent monthly 'upper‑brine' salinity metric for the Comprehensive Management Plan and whether to publish one or two values when a deep brine layer is present.
Christine, a USGS scientist, told the Utah Great Salt Lake Advisory Council that recent shallow salinity samples taken on Feb. 27 show values between about 108 and 116 grams per liter and that the South Arm's most recent salt‑mass measurement is roughly 894,000,000 tons.
Those measurements underpin USGS forecasts presented to the council: under average climate inputs the forecasted June (spring) salinity is about 108 g/L, a warm‑dry scenario yields about 120 g/L, and a wet‑cool scenario about 92 g/L. For October (fall) 2025 the model's median estimate is roughly 113 g/L with a plausible range from about 92 to 131 g/L.
The forecast uses the February 27 sampling as a starting condition (volume‑weighted salinity ~115 g/L and South Arm volume ~6,280,000 acre‑feet) and incorporates flows through the new breach, evaporation, monthly…
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