San Angelo ISD demographics forecast shows continued enrollment decline; district plans elementary consolidations by 2027
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Summary
Zonda Demographics told the school board the district has lost students over recent years and projects continued declines; district leaders said at least two elementary campuses likely will close, with rezoning and community engagement planned ahead of any 2027 implementation.
SAN ANGELO, Texas — A demographic study presented to the San Angelo ISD Board of Trustees on Dec. 15 showed sustained enrollment declines that district leaders say will force campus consolidations and attendance‑zone changes.
Rocky Gardner of Zonda Demographics (presenting the study) told the board the district lost about 1,570 students over a five‑year period and currently has a low student yield — roughly 0.25 students per home in the district. He said the firm identified nine active subdivisions and roughly 1,000 future homes but emphasized that current housing activity would likely produce only about 40–50 new homes a year and “you probably would see about 50 homes a year” as a steady state.
Superintendent Dr. Moran told trustees the enrollment and fiscal outlook mean the district must plan now. “Because of our declining enrollment, because of our staff shortages, because of our academic challenges, we’re gonna need to reduce our elementary schools at least to 12,” Dr. Moran said, describing a process that would identify which two campuses to close, then begin attendance‑boundary work so families have time to plan.
Board members pressed for timing and parental notice. Administrators said closures would not occur before the rezoning process and that, if implemented, parents should be given roughly a year’s notice; the board discussed completing attendance‑zone recommendations by summer so changes would be effective in 2027 if approved. The administration also noted a projected shortfall in operating funds tied to lower Average Daily Attendance and said closing campuses could yield one‑time savings in the six‑figure range to help realign recurring costs.
Zonda presented three scenarios (low, mid and high) and stressed uncertainty: statewide K‑12 enrollment trends, charter and virtual school growth, and capture rates of births to kindergarteners could all affect the forecast. Zonda’s mid scenario shows continued net declines and a possible long‑term enrollment near 11,000 students in a 10‑year horizon.
What’s next: Trustees asked administration to return with options and attendance‑boundary materials for public review; the board framed the work as a multi‑step process of campus assessment, community engagement and a timeline that would avoid multiple moves for students or staff.
